Dinamika Sosial-Ekonomi Sektor Pertanian Tembakau di Tengah Perubahan Iklim: Strategi Adaptasi dan Mitigasi - Azhari, Rizka; Sukartono, Sukartono; Tajidan, Tajidan (Empiricism Journal, 2026)
Perubahan iklim global menjadi ancaman nyata bagi keberlanjutan pertanian tembakau lahan kering karena komoditas ini sangat sensitif terhadap pergeseran musim, kemarau basah, kelembapan tinggi, dan cuaca ekstrem. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produktivitas dan kualitas fisiologis tembakau, menelaah dinamika sosial-ekonomi petani, mengidentifikasi strategi adaptasi, serta merumuskan mitigasi berkelanjutan. Studi dilakukan melalui Systematic Literature Review dengan protokol PRISMA yang dimodifikasi. Dari 145 artikel dan dokumen potensial pada database Google Scholar, Scopus, ScienceDirect, dan Garuda periode 2017–2026, terpilih 23 rujukan yang terdiri atas 19 artikel utama dan 4 laporan sektoral kebijakan resmi. Data dianalisis menggunakan Thematic Analysis. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa fenomena kemarau basah memicu cekaman genangan air atau waterlogging yang meningkatkan senyawa toksik dan menurunkan klorofil daun hingga 30,35%. Dampaknya terlihat pada penurunan mutu fisik dan kimiawi tembakau, termasuk kadar nikotin. Penurunan mutu ke kelas rendah menyebabkan harga jual turun hingga 32% dalam struktur pasar oligopsoni, sementara biaya produksi meningkat sekitar 30% akibat serangan patogen tanah dan kebutuhan pengeringan buatan. Situasi ini memperbesar risiko debt-trap bagi petani kecil. Adaptasi telah dilakukan melalui varietas toleran, seperti NTB-1 dan Grompol 3, penyesuaian kalender tanam, bedengan tinggi, drainase, dan diversifikasi tanaman, tetapi efektivitasnya dibatasi modal, kontrak kemitraan yang kaku, dan rendahnya literasi digital. Mitigasi diarahkan pada briket biomassa, biochar, pupuk organik, PHT, serta penguatan sinergi pemerintah, industri, dan petani dalam praktik Climate-Smart Agriculture agar produksi tetap adaptif, emisi menurun, posisi tawar petani lebih kuat, dan keberlanjutan ekonomi lahan kering lebih terjaga dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian iklim. Socio-Economic Dynamics of the Tobacco Agricultural Sector Amid Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Abstract Global climate change poses a serious threat to the sustainability of dryland tobacco farming, as this commodity is highly sensitive to seasonal shifts, wet drought phenomena, high humidity, and extreme weather events. This study aims to analyze the impacts of climate change on tobacco productivity and physiological quality, examine the socio-economic dynamics experienced by farmers, identify adaptation strategies, and formulate relevant sustainable mitigation measures. The study employed a Systematic Literature Review using a modified PRISMA protocol. From 145 potential articles and documents retrieved from Google Scholar, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Garuda for the 2017–2026 period, 23 references were selected, consisting of 19 primary articles and four official sectoral policy reports. The data were analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings indicate that wet drought conditions trigger waterlogging stress, which increases toxic compounds and reduces leaf chlorophyll content by up to 30.35%. This condition adversely affects both the physical and chemical quality of tobacco leaves, including nicotine content. The decline in leaf quality to low-grade categories reduces selling prices by up to 32% within an oligopsonistic market structure, while production costs increase by approximately 30% due to soil-borne pathogen outbreaks and the need for artificial flue-curing. This situation intensifies the risk of debt traps among smallholder farmers. Farmers have adopted several adaptation strategies, including tolerant varieties such as NTB-1 and Grompol 3, planting calendar adjustments, raised beds, drainage improvement, and crop diversification. However, their effectiveness remains constrained by limited capital, rigid partnership contracts, and low digital literacy. Mitigation efforts are directed toward biomass briquettes, biochar application, organic fertilizer substitution, integrated pest management, and stronger synergy among government, industry, and farmers through Climate-Smart Agriculture practices to maintain adaptive production, reduce emissions, strengthen farmers’ bargaining position, and sustain dryland farming economies under climate uncertainty.