Population Age Structure and Sex Composition in Bangladesh, China and India: A Comparative Study
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Understanding past, present, and future population dynamics is essential for development planning for any country, particularly for the most populous nations like Bangladesh, China, and India, where almost 38 percent of the world population lives, according to World Population Prospects 2022 of the United Nations. Due to the non-availability of comparative analysis in age structure and sex composition in these countries, this study aims to examine the following questions: (i) What has been the course of age and sex composition trends, and why? and (ii) to what extent have the age structure transition and sex composition been similar or dissimilar? This study utilizes time-series data from national-level population censuses, surveys, population projections, and estimates produced by the United Nations Population Division. Bangladesh and India are currently experiencing the third phase of demographic transition due to a decline in birth and death rates at an almost similar pace where a majority of the people are aged 15-64 years (working-age population), which will be diminishing between 2030 to 2040 with the increase of older persons. On the other hand, China has completed the fourth stage of the demographic transition and is going through a further decline in population growth rate and an increasing aging trend. The sex ratio at birth and the general sex ratio are both higher in India and China than in Bangladesh. A strong presence of Gender-Biased Sex Selection (GBSS) has been found in Bangladesh, India and China. The child dependency ratios are currently low and almost similar in Bangladesh and India. In China, old-age dependency is already increasing, and both Bangladesh and India will eventually observe an increase in the old-age dependency ratio by 2040, according to the projection. For Bangladesh and India to achieve the maximum benefits of the first demographic dividend and SDG 8, 5, and 3- the countries need short- and long-term policy actions on education, health, economy, and good governance, considering the age structure and sex composition. For China, the challenges will be to sustain future economic growth with a declining working-age population and ensure healthy aging to achieve a second demographic dividend.
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