Abstract
The stagnation of the fertility decline in Tanzania poses new doubts on the demographic leverage of education. Based on a survey of 381 women conducted in Morogoro Region in 2025, the paper re-examines the schooling and fertility relationship through cross-tabulations and multivariate regression. Primary educated women had a mean parity of 4.8 births that declined to 4.3 among secondary leavers and increased to 4.6 among tertiary graduates indicating cohort effects. Controlling for age and occupation, secondary schooling was correlated with 0.45 fewer children a trivial, non-significant tertiary coefficient (p = 0.077). The difference in the number of children born by formal employees and the similar farmers was -0.59, which was a significant reinforcement of the concept of decent work. Chi-square tests proved that there was significant variation in fertility based on occupation (p = 0.022) but a marginal variation based on education (p = 0.079). The scenario modelling reveals that the universal lower-secondary completion could reduce the regional TFR by 0.4 births. Post-primary retention, youth-friendly contraception and promotion of female employment should be intertwined through policy to accelerate fertility decline.
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