Estimasi Pengunjung Pontianak Interactive Center dengan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36312/ej.v4i2.1517Keywords:
Pontive Center, Double Exponential Smoothing, MAPE.Abstract
Pontianak Interactive Center (Pontive Center) adalah salah satu layanan publik yang disediakan pemerintah melalu Dinas Komunikasi dan Informatika Kota Pontianak. Pontive Center menyediakan layanan publik seperti pusat kendali CCTV dan berbagai sensor pengamatan, pengelolaan informasi, sistem TIK, dan sebagainya. Jumlah kunjungan setiap bulannya di Pontive Center cukup beragam sehingga diperlukan estimasi jumlah kunjungan agar Pontive Center dapat mempersiapkan segala alternatif yang dapat digunakan jika terjadi lonjakan jumlah kunjungan. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) dalam mengestimasikan jumlah kunjungan di Pontive Center. Data yang digunakan yaitu data jumlah kunjungan di Pontive Center dalam bulanan dari tahun 2019-2022. Data ini merupakan jumlah kunjungan di Pontive Center seperti kunjungan instansi, rapat kerja, seminar, sosialisasi dan sebagainya. Penelitian ini mengestimasikan jumlah kunjungan selama 12 bulan ke depan dan didapat rata-rata jumlah kunjungannya yaitu 11-12 kunjungan perbulannya. Perhitungan nilai Mean Absolut Percentage Error (MAPE) yang didapat yaitu sebesar 42%, sehingga model estimasi dengan Double Exponential Smoothing pada penelitian ini cukup layak digunakan.
Estimated Visitors to the Pontianak Interactive Center Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Method
Abstract
Pontianak Interactive Center (Pontive Center) is one of the public services provided by the government through the Pontianak City Communication and Information Service. Pontive Center provides public services such as CCTV control centers and various observation sensors, information management, ICT systems, and so on. The number of visits each month at the Pontive Center is quite varied, so an estimate of the number of visits is needed so that the Pontive Center can prepare all alternatives that can be used if there is a spike in the number of visits. The method used in this research is the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method in estimating the number of visits to the Pontive Center. The data used is data on the number of visits to the Pontive Center monthly from 2019-2022. This data represents the number of visits to the Pontive Center such as agency visits, work meetings, seminars, socialization and so on. This study estimated the number of visits over the next 12 months and found that the average number of visits was 11-12 visits per month. The calculation of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value obtained is 42%, so the estimation model with Double Exponential Smoothing in this research is quite suitable for use.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Neva Satyahadewi, Siti Aprizkiyandari, Rendi Rivaldo
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