Peran Analisis Laporan Keuangan dalam Identifikasi Financial Distress UMKM Kota Manado
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Penelitian ini bertujuan memetakan kondisi keuangan dan mengidentifikasi kategori risiko financial distress pada 20 usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (UMKM) nonkeuangan di Kota Manado. Kesenjangan penelitian terletak pada masih terbatasnya kajian tingkat daerah yang menggabungkan kualitas pencatatan, rasio keuangan, arus kas operasi, tren beberapa periode, dan klasifikasi Altman Z″-Score pada unit UMKM nonpublik. Penelitian menggunakan studi eksploratif-deskriptif dengan pendekatan multiple-case financial analysis. Unit dipilih secara purposive berdasarkan ketersediaan catatan keuangan periode 2023–2025 yang dapat diperiksa dan kesediaan pemilik atau pengelola memberikan klarifikasi. Analisis mencakup current ratio, debt to asset ratio, return on assets, margin laba bersih, perputaran total aset, arus kas operasi, indeks deskriptif kualitas pencatatan, dan Altman Z″-Score. Berdasarkan model tersebut, 13 UMKM (65%) berada dalam kategori sehat, tiga (15%) pada daerah abu-abu, dan empat (20%) pada kategori financial distress. Kelompok yang diklasifikasikan distress memiliki rata-rata current ratio 0,89, debt to asset ratio 64,98%, return on assets −0,56%, dan arus kas operasi −Rp3,50 juta. Analisis historis pada tujuh unit berisiko menunjukkan pola penurunan skor selama 2023–2025. Perbedaan rasio antarkategori ditafsirkan sebagai profil deskriptif, bukan validasi independen model atau hubungan sebab-akibat. Hasil berlaku pada unit yang diteliti dan menunjukkan bahwa laporan keuangan dapat digunakan sebagai dasar pemetaan risiko awal, tetapi kemampuan prediktifnya masih memerlukan validasi prospektif terhadap kejadian gagal bayar, restrukturisasi, pemulihan, atau penghentian usaha.
The Role of Financial Statement Analysis in Identifying MSME Financial Distress in Manado
Abstract
This study maps financial conditions and identifies financial distress risk categories among 20 non-financial micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Manado. The research gap concerns the limited regional evidence integrating record-keeping quality, financial ratios, operating cash flow, multi-period trends, and Altman Z″-Score classifications for non-public MSMEs. An exploratory-descriptive study with a multiple-case financial analysis approach was employed. The units were purposively selected based on the availability of verifiable financial records for 2023–2025 and the willingness of owners or managers to provide clarification. The analysis covered the current ratio, debt-to-asset ratio, return on assets, net profit margin, total asset turnover, operating cash flow, a descriptive record-keeping quality index, and the Altman Z″-Score. The model classified 13 MSMEs (65%) as healthy, three (15%) in the grey zone, and four (20%) as financially distressed. The distressed category recorded an average current ratio of 0.89, debt-to-asset ratio of 64.98%, return on assets of −0.56%, and operating cash flow of −IDR 3.50 million. Historical analysis of seven at-risk units showed declining score patterns during 2023–2025. Differences across categories are interpreted as descriptive profiles rather than independent model validation or causal relationships. The findings apply only to the units studied and indicate that financial statements can support preliminary risk mapping; however, predictive performance requires prospective validation against default, restructuring, recovery, or business closure events.
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