Evaluasi Efektivitas dan Dampak Ruptl 2025-2034 erhadap Implementasi Perencanaan Tarif Bisnis PT PLN
Authors
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Agung Ilham Pratama
Institut Teknologi PLN
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Eri Prabowo
Institut Teknologi PLN
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Dhiyat Imtiyaz Yunan
Institut Teknologi PLN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36312/jar.v5i3.6379Keywords:
SARIMAX, penjualan listrik, golongan tarif Bisnis, variabel eksogen makroekonomi, rencana usaha penyediaan tenaga listrikAbstract
Dokumen Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik 2025-2034 menjadi acuan pembangunan infrastruktur kelistrikan nasional, namun keandalan proyeksinya pada tingkat golongan tarif belum banyak diuji. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi proyeksi golongan tarif pelanggan Bisnis (B) pada dokumen tersebut dengan membangun model pembanding berbasis Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables. Data yang digunakan berupa 168 observasi bulanan penjualan listrik golongan tarif pelanggan Bisnis (B) seluruh Indonesia periode Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2025 beserta enam kandidat variabel eksogen makroekonomi. Seleksi model menggabungkan filter korelasi Pearson, pencarian eksaustif tervalidasi silang atas 3.200 kombinasi orde dan subset eksogen, serta evaluasi multikriteria terhadap tujuh kandidat yang lolos penyaringan. Model final SARIMAX(1,0,0)(1,0,0,12) dengan variabel nilai tukar USD/IDR dan PDB nominal harga berlaku sektor penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum menghasilkan mean abosolut percentage error (MAPE) 2,65% pada periode uji. Proyeksi 2026 hingga 2034 membentuk tiga skenario dengan pertumbuhan majemuk tahunan 6,24%, 7,30%, dan 8,24%. Seluruh skenario melampaui angka 5,12% yang diproyeksikan dokumen resmi bagi golongan tarif ini, sedangkan dokumen edisi sebelumnya mencatat galat 2,97% hingga 4,98%. Temuan ini mengindikasikan proyeksi resmi berpotensi konservatif.
The Electricity Supply Business Plan 2025-2034 guides national power infrastructure development, yet the reliability of its projection at the customer tariff level has rarely been tested. This study evaluates the Business (B) tariff projection in that plan by building a comparative model based on Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables. The data comprise 168 monthly observations of national Business tariff electricity sales from January 2012 to December 2025 and six candidate macroeconomic exogenous variables. Model selection combines a Pearson correlation filter, an exhaustive cross validated search over 3,200 combinations of model orders and exogenous subsets, and a multicriteria evaluation of seven surviving candidates. The final model SARIMAX(1,0,0)(1,0,0,12) with the USD/IDR exchange rate and the nominal gross domestic product of the accommodation and food service sector yields a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.65% on the test period. Projections for 2026 to 2034 form three scenarios with compound annual growth rates of 6.24%, 7.30% and 8.24%. All scenarios exceed the 5.12% projected for this tariff group in the official plan, whose preceding edition recorded errors of 2.97% to 4.98%, indicating that the official projection is likely conservative.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Agung Ilham Pratama, Eri Prabowo, Dhiyat Imtiyaz Yunan
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